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Review
Forecasting: theory and practiceUnder a Creative Commons license
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Abstract
Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts.
We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases.
Keywords
Review
Encyclopedia
Methods
Applications
Principles
Time series
Prediction
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© 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of International Institute of Forecasters.
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Terms in this set (12)
Which of the following is a/are reason(s) that APS emerged? (Select all that apply)
Declining costs of computers.
Advances in networking capabilities.
Need for inventory management.
Declining costs of computers.
Advances in networking capabilities.
Need for inventory management.
Which of the following is not a practical element that influences forecasting?
Discontinued products.
Competitive actions.
Financial requirements.
Promotions.
Discontinued products.
What helps a person most with their forecasting abilities?
Data.
Education.
Technique.
Experience.
Training.
Experience
Which of the following is not a demand planning requirement?
Allow exception alerts and resolution.
Provide reporting analysis and other metrics.
Handle time fences.
Track promotion activity.
Handle time fences.
The optimization module of an advanced planning and scheduling (APS) system ______.
develops the requirement projections for the planning horizon
specifies the resource assignments and communicates them to the ERP system
defines and coordinates supply chain system resources and constraints
is the computational engine of the supply chain planning system
...
Which of the following is not a characteristic of advanced planning and scheduling (APS)?
Integrated supply chain decision making.
Constrained resource planning.
Forecasts are not necessary.
Requires high data integrity and accuracy.
Forecasts are not necessary.
S&OP is an integrated combination of three things. Which of the following is not included?
Logistical shortfall assessment.
Organizational processes.
Information systems.
Personal responsibility and accountability.
Logistical shortfall assessment.
The resource management module of an advanced planning and scheduling (APS) system ______.
defines and coordinates supply chain system resources and constraints
develops the requirement projections for the planning horizon
specifies the resource assignments and communicates them to the ERP system
is the computational engine of the supply chain planning system
defines and coordinates supply chain system resources and constraints
Which of the following must a firm consider before APS implementation? (Select all that apply)
Benefits.
Costs.
Applications.
Characteristics.
Benefits
Applications.
Characteristics
Which of the following is not a purpose of APS planning charts?
Facilitate decision making for optimal results.
Identify various stages within the supply chain.
Assist planners with evaluating cost procurement.
Aid employees in understanding production purposes.
Aid employees in understanding production purposes.
__________ involves ensuring that the enterprise is prepared to meet the forecasted demand by generating a constrained, optimal plan using response buffers of inventory and capacity.
Supply planning
Financial planning
Factory planning and demand fulfillment
Demand planning
...
Which of the following is not a benefit of CPFR? (Select all that apply)
Coordinates manufacturer promotions with retailer promotions.
Forecasts are used to guide the business practice.
Items from different suppliers are consistent.
Forecasts are used to guide the business practice.
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