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AbstractWe use Chinese imports, measured as reported exports of trading partners, as a benchmark to gauge the accuracy of alternative Chinese indicators (including GDP) of fluctuations in economic activity. Externally-reported imports are likely to be relatively well-measured and free from domestic manipulation. Using principal components, we derive activity indices from a wide range of indicators. We choose a preferred index of eight non-GDP indicators based on their fit to Chinese imports, which we call the China Cyclical Activity Tracker (or C-CAT). We find that Chinese statistics have broadly become more reliable in measuring cyclical fluctuations over time. However, measured GDP has been excessively smooth since 2013, and adds little information relative to combinations of other indicators. KeywordsChina GDP Principal components Structural break Forecasting JEL Classification numbersC53 C82 E20 F17 Cited by (0)© 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Recommended textbook solutions
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