Why is the accuracy of estimates for current events greater than that for more distant events quizlet?

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Terms in this set (13)

Planning experience (95% probability)

good starting point for developing time and cost estimates

Planning horizon (close to 100% accurate)

estimates of current events are close to 100% accurate but are reduced for more distant events

Project complexity

time to implement new technology has a habit of expanding in an increasing, nonlinear fashion. Poorly written scope specifications for new technology result in errors in estimating times and costs.

Project structure & organization

Which project structure is chosen to manage the project will influence time and cost estimates. One of the major advantages of a dedicated project team discussed earlier is the speed gained from concentrated focus and localized project decisions. This speed comes at an additional cost of tying up personnel full time. Conversely, projects operating in a matrix environment may reduce costs by more efficiently sharing personnel across projects but may take longer to complete since attention is divided and coordination demands are higher.

Organization culture

Organization culture can significantly influence project estimates. In some organizations padding estimates is tolerated and even privately encouraged. Other organizations place a premium on accuracy and strongly discourage estimating gamesmanship. Organizations vary in the importance they attach to estimates. The prevailing belief in some organizations is that detailed estimating takes too much time and is not worth the effort or that it's impossible to predict the future. Other organizations subscribe to the belief that accurate estimates are the bedrock of effective project management

Work package estimates (7)

...

-Responsibility

estimates should be made by the person most familiar with the task.

Use several people to estimate

several people with relevant experience are used

Normal conditions

Estimates should be based on normal conditions, efficient methods, and a normal level of resources

Time units

Specific time units to use should be selected early in the development phase of the project network. All task time estimates need consistent time units. Estimates of time must consider whether normal time is represented by calendar days, workdays, workweeks, person days, single shift, hours, minutes, etc

Independence

Estimators should treat each task as independent of other tasks that might be integrated by the WBS. Use of first-line managers usually results in considering tasks independently; this is good. Top managers are prone to aggregate many tasks into one time estimate and then deductively make the individual task time estimates add to the total.

Contingencies.

Work package estimates should not include allowances for contingencies. The estimate should assume normal or average conditions even though every work package will not materialize as planned. For this reason top management needs to create an extra fund for contingencies that can be used to cover unforeseen events.

Adding risk assessment to the estimate helps to avoid surprises to stakeholders.

It is obvious some tasks carry more time and cost risks than others. For example, a new technology usually carries more time and cost risks than a proven process. Simply identifying the degree of risk lets stakeholders consider alternative methods and alter process decisions. A simple breakdown by optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic for task time could provide valuable information regarding time and cost. See Chapter 7 for further discussion of project risk.

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Why is the accuracy of estimates for current events greater than that for more distant events multiple choice question?

Why is the accuracy of estimates for current events greater than that for more distant events? Uncertainty increases over time.

Why are so many cost estimates inaccurate?

That's because no one person has insight into the full scope of project costs and because different estimators operate under different assumptions, use different data, and have different analytical biases. It's not just team decentralization that causes project estimate inaccuracy.

Why is it important for estimates to be as accurate as possible?

Accurate estimating provides a detailed breakdown of all project costs. Clients are more likely to trust your expertise and expect changes to the cost estimate as the project progresses if they understand the “why” behind a project's cost. This leads to better working relationships.

Why are accurate estimates critical to effective project management quizlet?

Why are accurate estimates critical to effective project management? Without accurate time and cost estimates project control is ineffective. Inaccurate estimates can make the difference between profit or loss.